Hey guys.
First off, you should have read Nolan's Iron Man post below before diving into this one (which, by the way, I greatly enjoyed). However, as someone who's interested in these sorts of crazy things, now that both Iron Man and GTA IV numbers are available, I'd like to just discuss in a little bit more detail the whole crazy "ZOMG GTA IV WILL KILL IRON MAN" prediction that a lot of pundits and analysts out there were making.
First off, the cold, hard facts.
Iron Man
From Wikipedia:
"In its opening weekend, Iron Man grossed $98,618,668 in 4,105 theaters in the United States and Canada, ranking #1 at the box office, making it the tenth-biggest movie opening weekend of all time,ninth widest release in terms of theaters, and the highest-grossing opening weekend of 2008. It grossed $35.2 million on its first day, making it the 13th-biggest opening day. Iron Man had the second-best premiere ever for a non-sequel, coming behind Spider-Man. It had the fourth-biggest opening for a superhero movie.
As of May 8, 2008, Iron Man has grossed $225.6 million worldwide — $126.6 million in the United States and Canada and $99 million in 57 other countries."
"Estimates for the cost of marketing Iron Man ranged from US$50 to $75 million."
"Iron Man received very positive reviews from fans and critics alike. As of May 9, 2008, the review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes
reported that 92% of critics gave the film positive reviews, based on
177 reviews, with the consensus that "even non-comics fans can enjoy
this smart, high impact superhero movie". Metacritic reported the film had an average score of 78 out of 100, based on 37 reviews.
GTA IV
From Wikipedia:
"GTA IV sold about 3.6 million units [Riley's Note: later in the article it states that figure at $310 million on day one] on its first day of release and grossed more than $500 million in its first week, breaking the first-week sales record of $300 million set by Halo 3. The release of GTA IV became the "largest launch in the history of interactive entertainment"
"The Xbox 360 version of GTA IV has received an average critic review score of 99% from review aggregators Game Rankings and Metacritic, while the PS3 version has received average scores of 99% from Game Rankings and Metacritic. As of 5 May 2008,
those scores place the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 versions as the #1
highest rated games on their respective consoles on Metacritic, and as
the #1 and #2 ranked games of all time respectively on GameRankings,
becoming the first game(s) in history to surpass The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time's score on that site."
"It has been reported to be the most expensive video game to develop at
around a budget of 100 Million. There was a pretty good size army of
animators and programmers working on this game for a very long time and
it shows in a big way." (from http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/digitaljoystick/archives/138128.asp)
Similarities
After reading that info, there's a few things you should immediately come away with. First off, both of these products were incredibly well received by critics. I would argue that although Iron Man received a bit "lower" score, the movie industry has been around a very, very long time, has a wider overall audience, and its critics are generally more seasoned and "picky", for lack of a better term. I would honestly say that, subjectively, the 92% Iron Man received on Rotten Tomatoes is more outstanding than the 99% GTA IV received on MetaCritic. Of course, that's my personal opinion. So, they're both "cream of the crop" in their respective environments.
In addition, both of these products were heavily marketed. I don't know that GTA IV was as heavily marketed as Iron Man (video games don't do LG phone tie-in commercials, for example), but I think they both did a respective amount of solid marketing for their target audiences.
But here's where the similarities end.
Differences
What amazes me the most is the difference in income. GTA IV took in over $300 million dollars on DAY ONE. Now, granted, if we do a bit of math here, we can see that over the entire weekend, if we assume about $10 for a movie ticket, somewhere between 8 and 10 million folks saw Iron Man, while only about 4 million people bought GTA IV. So, you're saying "Well, yeah, video games are expensive. That's because they cost so much to make, right?" Wrong. Look at that statistic from the GTA IV review. The game was one of the "most expensive to develop" in all-time, and it only cost $100 million dollars to make. I'm not sure what the actual budget of Iron Man was (probably less than $100 million? Then again, the marketing budget alone was $50 - $75 million), but I think it's safe to assume that after making $500 million in revenues in the first week alone, GTA IV definitely made a tidy profit for Rockstar and Take Two.
Why the pundits were wrong
First off, the pundits weren't wrong about GTA IV. In fact, it blew even the highest estimates away. There were 'whispers in the dark', so to speak, about breaking $500 million in week one, but most people thought that was crazy talk. But, it happened. And I'm sure when we get next week's numbers, we'll tack another $100 million or so onto that number. However, they were wrong about Iron Man. Even though people bought GTA IV, the SAME TARGET AUDIENCE still went to see Iron Man. I did both, for example.
The pundits were wrong because they like to think that there's a finite amount of money in the world to be spent. It makes the movie execs feel good at night when a crap-tastic movie flops at the box office. Don't blame the writing, acting, or directing, oh no, it's the ECONOMY. As we can clearly see, even in a "recession", when movie income is down by tens of percents over the previous year, if it's good, people will buy it.
And, on a final note, I'm not trying to take anything away from Iron Man, it's a great movie, and I loved it, but as far as "entertainment", GTA IV delivers in spades in ways a movie (to me) never will, and that's why I think we're going to start seeing more and more video games outperform the movie industry in the decades to come.